Q4 2026 earnings season: Can stock market breadth finally improve?
Stock market breadth is still historically weak heading into the Q4 2026 earnings season—so which releases could actually move the needle? Here’s a breakdown of the names and themes worth watching closely.
Amid continuing reports on AI company valuations i, the Q4 2026 earnings season, starting around mid-October, is drawing considerable anticipation. Traders are likely to focus on AI-related shares, primarily Nvidia as usual, but other tech companies and energy will probably draw attention as well. One key question heading into this earnings season is whether stock market breadth—still weak by historical standards—can meaningfully improve. In this article, I break down what I think are some of the most prominent or uncertain releases in the next few weeks.
In this week’s episode of Trading Talks, I spoke to Clay Webster from FXStreet about his take on upcoming earnings. If you’ve not heard the podcast yet, check it out here:
Key takeaways
- Stock market breadth remains weak but is improving. Around 18 S&P 500 constituents sat above the 50 SMA and 25 above the 200 SMA as of 9 October, up from single digits at the end of September.
- Netflix’s 20 October earnings could be a turning point. The stock has declined about 25% this year, but ongoing revenue and viewership growth suggest it may be undervalued.
- Energy earnings could offer an early signal. High fuel prices make US energy companies’ upcoming reports, including Exxon Mobil on 23 October, worth watching ahead of UK equivalents later in the month.
- Big tech releases are clustered in late October. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Apple all report from 27–29 October, though the most closely watched names come in November.
- Nvidia remains the season’s biggest event. Alongside AMD on 3 November, Nvidia’s 19 November report is still more than a month away but will likely dominate attention once it arrives.
Invest in the world’s biggest market movers
Trade stocks of the most successful global tech and industry giants.*
Terms and conditions apply.
Is stock market breadth still weak heading into Q4 2026 earnings season?
Breadth in American stock markets has been a comment point in recent weeks as fewer individual shares have been doing consistently well—a theme we tracked in our broader 2026 stock market outlook. Based on the most popular indicators of stock market breadth, it’s still weak. The S&P 500 index level showed around 18 constituents above the 50 SMA and about 25 above the 200 SMA at close on Friday, 9 October.
This indicates low breadth, but it’s a reasonably significant improvement from the end of September, when companies above the 50 SMA were in the single digits. To some extent, I think this is a normal situation given the following factors:
- Considerable uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and where rates might peak next year.
- The Gulf conflict continues to disrupt oil supplies, driving inflation, albeit less than feared earlier this year.
- The approaching earnings season usually means large participants are more cautious about opening significant new positions or modifying existing ones.
Summary:
Stock market breadth is still weak by historical standards, but the clear improvement since late September suggests conditions heading into Q4 2026 earnings season are gradually normalizing rather than deteriorating further.
What are the biggest earnings releases to watch in October 2026?
The action starts with the major banks on 13 October, but I plan to start paying attention from 20 October with the Netflix earnings release (more on this below). On 22 October, there’s Amazon and Intel, then Exxon Mobil the day after.
I’m particularly intrigued by the extent to which energy companies may have increased profitability amid the current high prices for most fuels. I don’t personally own any American energy shares, but I think their releases might give some advance indication of how their British equivalents could report around the end of October.
Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Meta, and Apple release their numbers from 27–29 October. These aren’t particularly important to me this time around, but I’ll be watching for any surprises. Some of the most important releases will be next month, with AMD on 3 November and the biggest of them all, Nvidia, still more than a month away on 19 November—following another blockbuster quarter in August, expectations are already running high.
Summary:
This Q4 2026 earnings season is heavily front-loaded with banks and energy in mid-to-late October, while the names likely to move markets most—AMD and Nvidia—don’t report until November.
Is Netflix undervalued ahead of its Q4 2026 earnings report?
I think Netflix's after-hours release on Tuesday, 20 October, is one of the more important this season, given the share’s large overall decline this year of about 25%. Despite ongoing growth in revenue and viewership, earnings per share (EPS) have only beaten the consensus in two of the last four quarters. I think the impact of the Warner Bros. Discovery deal’s termination fee, around 2.8 billion USD, is significant enough to skew earnings, and this might be an opportunity for Netflix to bounce if upcoming earnings are at least decent.
The area around 66 USD looks like a double bottom, which would usually make it harder for the next test to break through, while a very low ATR of only 2 USD could suggest a change in the trend. All the moving averages are potential or actual dynamic resistances, with the initial focus on the 20 SMA around 72 USD. The 23.6% weekly Fibonacci retracement around 82 USD is a potentially important static resistance. If broken, the medium-term target might be around the 38.2% Fibo near 92 USD.
However confident I might be of a mismatch between a share’s fundamentals and its price, it’s a big risk to have a trade open over earnings. For me, derisking a position means keeping it small and waiting for the dust from the earnings report to settle. If the report is negative, it could easily invalidate the whole idea, at least for now.
Summary:
Netflix’s fundamentals look stronger than its 2026 share price suggests, making it one of the more interesting setups of the Q4 2026 earnings season—though the risk of holding a position directly through the report remains real regardless of conviction.
Trade stocks with zero commission
Trade the biggest names in tech and industry with low transaction costs.*
Terms and conditions apply.
Final thoughts—Looking into earnings with an expert
I thought this week’s Trading Talks was a particularly good episode because I had the chance to analyse events and stock market narratives in some detail with a specialist on the topic—themes that also connect to our broader 2026 global indices outlook. Clay shared his thoughts on AI, energy, tech, stock market breadth, and more, plus his own tips and areas of focus for this Q4 2026 earnings season.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Share:
Related
Exness Trade app
Trade with confidence anytime, anywhere.
Get the app
App title
Trading is risky. T&Cs apply.
More in Deep dives
